top of page

Do you know when to expect the least number of tourist arrivals in Cambodia?

Updated: Jul 13


One day I woke up, I saw this video on my Facebook feed that went viral from Cambodia to China to the USA.



It is about a Cambodian boy, who surprisingly can speak more than 12 languages, being video by a Malaysian tourist as he sells souvenirs along the street across Khmer temples. While the kid should be in school at this child development stage, the video makes me realize how vital tourism sector is relative to the Cambodian economy. So I want to dig more to find out how many tourists enter Cambodia and make a simple forecast out of the tourist arrival data I collected from the Ministry of Tourism. This type of forecasting can be applied to other industries as well such as fast-moving consumer goods, energy, telecommunication, and financial service to support demand planning.

"Without data to fact-checked, your statement is still an opinion."

Tourism Overview


The travel and tourism sector in the Kingdom is enormous. It contributes (USD3,135 Millions) or 14.1% of Cambodian's GDP and created 1,191,000 jobs (13.6% of total employment) in 2017 according to the annual report from the World Travel and Tourism Council. Such a popular destination is driven by the Kingdom's wonders such as Angkor Wat, great cultural heritages, deep pain from Khmer Rouge's genocides, the beautiful white sand beach of Sihanouk Villa, and the fast-growing city of Phnom Penh. No doubt the former French-colonized nation is a tourist destination, having Chinese, Vietnamese, and South Korean as the top three sources of visitors to the country. These three nationalities account as much as 40% in 2017.


Yearly Tourist Arrival Trend


On a yearly basis, we currently see more than 5 million visitors to Cambodia growing from 2 million in 2008. The growth rate has been positive year-on-year, while varies depending on the year, standing around 11.8% growth from last year.

Monthly Tourist Arrival Trend


When breaking down into the month level, we see more variations. December and January show the highest number of tourist arrivals, while May, June, and September have the least. This strong seasonality factor make senses. One explanation is that travelers may want to escape their freezing winter and enjoy their summer months. Local climate in winter in Cambodia offers a friendly, sunny, and chilled atmosphere for tourists, while much raining falls in the summer months.

Click to learn more about DataTiCon analytics consulting services.


Now with this data, let's make a forecast.


Monthly Tourist Arrival Forecasting


Based on the periodicity, trend, and seasonality, I make monthly forecasts for the next 12 months. According to my forecasting model, it achieves 95% accuracy in correctly estimating the overall number of tourists each month that are expected to enter Cambodia for the next 12 months.

Knowledge is power: transforming raw data into actionable insights to make informed decisions. Smart Decision < Knowledge < Information < Data

Here is the forecast.

The forecast captures the level, the trend, and seasonality well. Knowing ahead of time kind of information is powerful. For this use case, the ability to estimate tourist arrivals before they come enables travel related ministry and businesses to do demand and capacity planning effectively and strategically for growth.


Want to discuss how demand forecasting can be applied in retail/commerce, energy, telecommunication, and financial services? Contact us.


162 views1 comment

1 Comment

Rated 0 out of 5 stars.
No ratings yet

Add a rating
Unknown member
Dec 06, 2018

Yes, data powers everything we do nowadays, doesn't it?

Like
bottom of page